India’s Consumer Price Index-based (CPI-based) retail inflation for September is anticipated to reach around 5.5 percent, primarily due to a significant drop in the prices of specific food items, such as vegetables and edible oils.
The retail inflation figure for September, expected to be released on October 12, might fall within the Reserve Bank of India’s permissible range of 2-6 percent, following two consecutive months. In July, India’s retail inflation stood at 7.44 percent, which decreased to 6.83 percent in August.
During its recent policy update, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das reiterated that the central bank’s inflation target is 4 percent and not the wider range of 2 to 6 percent. RBI’s latest projections for CPI inflation in FY24 indicate a rate of 5.4 percent, with projections of 6.4 percent for Q2, 5.6 percent for Q3, and 5.2 percent for Q4. CPI inflation for Q1 FY25 is estimated to be at 5.2 percent.
